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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 18, 11PM-11:15PM ET
predict

Will crude oil prices go up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 18, 11PM-11:15PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 18, 11PM-11:15PM ET - Predict

1W

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Neutral

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·

Resolved Oct 18, 2026

Closed: Oct 18, 11:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 18, 11PM-11:15PM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T03:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T03:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probability of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has fluctuated over time. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides a snapshot of market sentiment and activity surrounding the future direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, the collective wisdom of the crowd on Predict offers a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are offering predictions about the future price of crude oil, this market allows traders to put their money where their mouth is, creating a quantifiable probability. Often, prediction market odds reflect a more up-to-date assessment of potential outcomes, incorporating a wider range of information and reacting quickly to new developments. It’s a fascinating comparison to see how the market’s view aligns with, or diverges from, expert opinion.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction format, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower by the close of trading on October 18th. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price effectively represents the market’s consensus expectation, and traders can adjust their positions as new information becomes available, influencing the odds in real-time.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts between 11:00 PM and 11:15 PM ET on October 18th. If the price is higher at 11:15 PM ET than at 11:00 PM ET, the 'Up' outcome will prevail; otherwise, the 'Down' outcome will be considered the result.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 19, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in international relations, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, will also be closely watched. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production cuts or increases could trigger substantial price movements. Even weather patterns, especially those impacting oil infrastructure or transportation, could play a role in shaping the market’s direction.