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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 18, 11:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T03:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T03:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of these odds, along with the total volume traded – currently $0 – and the 24-hour volume, which is $0. The dashboard also displays a price history chart, showing how the market has priced in different outcomes over time. This provides a quick overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding the future direction of crude oil.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, risk appetites, or access to unique data. It’s common to see this market anticipating outcomes that diverge from the consensus view of financial experts, offering a potentially valuable alternative signal.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the implied probabilities you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market efficiently incorporates new information as it becomes available, reflecting the collective intelligence of participants. The current spread between the 'up' and 'down' contracts indicates the level of uncertainty surrounding the outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the final settlement price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts as reported by a major financial exchange. The market will determine whether the price moved up or down from its starting point at the specified time, and the outcome will be based on that comparison. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies for future events.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 19, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in international relations, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand and inventory levels, will also play a role. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production cuts or increases, or even unexpected weather events impacting oil infrastructure, could cause substantial price movements and shifts in the probabilities reflected in this market. Keep an eye on these developments for potential trading opportunities.