TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

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4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 18, 10PM-10:15PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 18, 10PM-10:15PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 18, 10PM-10:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 18, 2026

Closed: Oct 18, 10:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 18, 10PM-10:15PM ET

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Settled
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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T02:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T02:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time. You'll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of price movement. The dashboard is a key tool for understanding market sentiment and potential shifts in expectations surrounding crude oil.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on complex models and fundamental data, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of geopolitical events, supply chain disruptions, or unexpected economic data. It’s common to see this market anticipate changes before they are fully reflected in consensus analyst estimates, offering a potentially leading indicator of price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts directly reflects the probability of each outcome, as perceived by the participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price dynamically adjusts based on supply and demand, meaning that as more traders bet on one outcome, the price of that outcome’s contract will increase, and vice versa. This creates a fluid and responsive pricing mechanism.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts as reported by a major financial data provider at the specified time. The direction of the price change – whether it’s up or down from the starting price – will determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders will be able to see the verified result on Predict shortly after the resolution time.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 19, 2026. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions, and shifts in global economic growth forecasts are all potential catalysts. Furthermore, inventory reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any disruptions to oil infrastructure, such as pipeline outages or refinery issues, could trigger substantial price movements. Any surprising data releases related to demand from China or other major economies could also influence trading activity in this market.