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420,493

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 1:45PM-2PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 1:45PM-2PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 1:45PM-2PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 2:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 1:45PM-2PM ET

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Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T17:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T17:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has moved over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to future crude oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of data, varying risk appetites, or the inclusion of non-public information by market participants. It’s common to see this market anticipating changes before they are reflected in mainstream analyst predictions, or conversely, exhibiting more stability during periods of uncertainty.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower on the resolution date. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of the price going up, with the remaining probability assigned to the price going down. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the future price movement.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 16, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as conflicts in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are key catalysts. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, can also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any significant disruptions to oil supply chains, like pipeline outages or refinery issues, are likely to cause price fluctuations and influence trading activity in this market.