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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET - Predict

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·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 12:45 PM EST

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T16:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T16:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market provides a real-time view of trader sentiment. You'll find the current odds reflecting the probability of crude oil prices increasing or decreasing, a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume traded to date is $0. This allows you to quickly assess market activity and how predictions are evolving as new information becomes available. It's a central hub for understanding where traders stand on the direction of oil prices.

Often, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a probabilistic view of the future. If analysts are overwhelmingly bullish, you might see a higher probability assigned to 'Crude Oil Up' in this market. However, discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s valuable to consider both sources when forming your own opinion on the direction of crude oil prices.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether crude oil prices will be up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective forecast of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing means the odds are constantly adjusting as new information emerges and traders update their perspectives. The market efficiently incorporates available knowledge, providing a real-time probability assessment of the outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 12:30 PM ET and 12:45 PM ET on October 16th. If the price is higher at 12:45 PM ET than at 12:30 PM ET, the 'Crude Oil Up' outcome will be verified; otherwise, the 'Crude Oil Down' outcome will be verified.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 16, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in OPEC+ policy, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or Chinese economic growth figures), can also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any surprise announcements regarding supply or demand from major players in the oil industry could cause the odds to shift dramatically.