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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 11:45AM-12PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 11:45AM-12PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 11:45AM-12PM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 12:00 PM EST

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 11:45AM-12PM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T15:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T15:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down between 11:45 AM and 12:00 PM ET on October 16th. It displays the real-time odds as determined by traders on the platform, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You can also view the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides a clear overview of market sentiment.

Currently, it's difficult to draw direct comparisons between the predictions reflected in this market and those made by traditional financial analysts. While analysts often publish price targets and directional forecasts for crude oil, these are typically based on fundamental and technical analysis. This market, however, represents the collective intelligence of traders who are putting their capital at risk. It will be interesting to see if the outcome of this market aligns with the consensus view of experts, or if traders identify factors not fully appreciated by conventional analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the price of crude oil will be higher or lower during the specified time window. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants, and the platform automatically adjusts the odds to maintain a balanced market. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market accurately reflects the collective forecast.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts during the 11:45 AM to 12:00 PM ET window on October 16th. If the price is higher at 12:00 PM ET than at 11:45 AM ET, the 'Crude Oil Up' outcome will prevail; otherwise, 'Crude Oil Down' will be the result. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before its resolution. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions to oil supply in major producing regions, would likely cause substantial price movements. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or Chinese economic growth figures), could also have a major impact. Furthermore, any significant news regarding OPEC+ production policy or inventory levels reported by the Energy Information Administration could shift trader sentiment and move this market. Keep an eye on these developments leading up to Oct 16, 2026.