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413,109

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET - Predict

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·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 11:45 AM EST

predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T15:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T15:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to move up or down. It also provides a price history chart, showing how the market has priced in different outcomes over time. You’ll find the total volume traded in this market, currently at $0, as well as the 24-hour volume, which is $0. This allows you to quickly assess market activity and sentiment regarding the direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, it's difficult to draw direct comparisons between this market and traditional analyst forecasts. However, prediction markets often aggregate diverse information and incentivize accurate predictions, potentially offering a different perspective than individual analyst reports. While analysts may provide point estimates or ranges, this market expresses probabilities, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders. It's worth noting that analysts' forecasts can vary widely, and this market represents a single, aggregated view of expectations regarding the crude oil price.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of the crude oil price increasing during the specified timeframe. Traders adjust their positions based on new information and their own analysis, contributing to a dynamic and responsive pricing mechanism.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 11:30 AM ET and 11:45 AM ET on October 16th. If the price is higher at 11:45 AM ET than at 11:30 AM ET, the market will resolve in favor of 'Crude Oil Up'; otherwise, it will resolve in favor of 'Crude Oil Down'.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 16, 2026. Unexpected announcements from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) regarding production levels, geopolitical events impacting oil supply (such as conflicts in major oil-producing regions), or significant shifts in global economic growth forecasts could all move the market. Additionally, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and unexpected demand shocks, like a major disruption in transportation, could also play a role in shifting trader sentiment and influencing the price of contracts in this market.