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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 10:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T14:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T14:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to move up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides a clear overview of market activity and how traders are positioning themselves ahead of the event.

Currently, it's important to note that prediction market odds represent the collective wisdom of traders on Predict, while analyst forecasts are individual opinions. Often, this market can offer a different perspective than traditional polls or expert predictions. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. If analysts generally predict a price increase, but traders on Predict lean towards a decrease, it suggests a divergence in expectations that could be worth investigating further.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability of a price increase is determined by the ratio of 'buy' orders to 'sell' orders, and this dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 10:30 AM ET and 10:45 AM ET on October 16, 2026. A price increase during this period will result in a positive outcome for the 'Crude Oil Up' side of this market, and a price decrease will result in a positive outcome for the 'Crude Oil Down' side.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 16, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as conflicts in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are key catalysts. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, can also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, any significant disruptions to oil supply, like hurricanes affecting Gulf Coast refineries, or shifts in inventory levels reported by the Energy Information Administration, could cause considerable movement in this market.