TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 9:45PM-10PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 9:45PM-10PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 9:45PM-10PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 10:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 9:45PM-10PM ET

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T01:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T01:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of these odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has priced the event over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity surrounding the potential movement of crude oil prices.

Currently, it's important to note that prediction market odds reflect the collective wisdom of traders on Predict, and may differ from traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges for future crude oil prices, this market allows participants to express probabilities for a binary outcome – up or down. Comparing this market’s implied probability to the consensus view of analysts, as expressed in surveys or reports, can reveal whether traders are more or less bullish or bearish than the expert community. It’s a different way of gauging expectations.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately determining the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as new information becomes available and traders update their views, creating a real-time assessment of potential price movements. This differs from fixed-odds betting, as the odds are not set in advance but evolve with market participation.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 9:45 PM ET and 10:00 PM ET on October 15th. If the price is higher at 10:00 PM ET than at 9:45 PM ET, the market will resolve in favor of “Crude Oil Up.” Conversely, if the price is lower, it will resolve in favor of “Crude Oil Down.”

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 16, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in international relations, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like Chinese manufacturing numbers or US GDP growth), can also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and even weather forecasts (affecting potential disruptions to supply) could all move the market. Keep an eye on these developments.