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419,363

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 9:45AM-10AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$21

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 9:45AM-10AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 9:45AM-10AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 10:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 9:45AM-10AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T13:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T13:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. It also provides a price history chart, showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, alongside the 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the volume is $21, and the total volume for this market is $21. Users can easily view these key metrics to understand market sentiment and activity related to this specific event.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different outlook than many traditional analyst forecasts. While some analysts predict a stable oil price, this market suggests a greater degree of uncertainty. It’s common to see discrepancies between prediction markets and polls or expert opinions, as this market aggregates the wisdom of many individual traders, potentially incorporating information not readily available to analysts. This difference in perspective can be valuable for a more comprehensive understanding of potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective predictions of the participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds are constantly updated, providing a real-time assessment of the likelihood of each outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the price of crude oil, as reported by a widely recognized financial index, is higher or lower during the 9:45AM-10:00AM ET window on October 15th. The final price will be determined by the established benchmark for crude oil trading, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 15, 2026. Geopolitical events, such as changes in OPEC+ production policies or unexpected disruptions in oil-producing regions, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, could also shift market sentiment. Furthermore, any significant news regarding inventory levels, refining capacity, or major energy infrastructure could move this market. Unexpected weather events impacting oil production or transportation are also potential drivers of price fluctuations.