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412,077

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$46

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 9:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$46
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T13:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T13:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price movement tracks the current implied probabilities of the price going up or down during the specified timeframe. It also displays the total volume traded in this market, currently at $46, and the 24-hour volume, which is $46. You can view the historical price action and how the odds have shifted as more traders participate. This provides a real-time view of where the crowd believes the price of crude oil is headed.

Currently, analysts are divided on the short-term direction of crude oil. Some anticipate a slight increase due to ongoing supply constraints, while others predict a decrease based on concerns about slowing global demand. This market offers a different perspective, aggregating the wisdom of the crowd. It’s interesting to see how the collective prediction compares to individual expert opinions, and whether the market anticipates factors not yet fully reflected in traditional forecasts. The difference between these viewpoints can highlight potential blind spots in either approach.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective judgment of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price represents the probability of the outcome occurring, as perceived by the market. Higher prices indicate a stronger belief in that outcome, while lower prices suggest greater uncertainty or a leaning towards the alternative.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the crude oil price between 9:30 AM ET and 9:45 AM ET on October 15th. If the price is higher at 9:45 AM ET than at 9:30 AM ET, the market will resolve in favor of 'Crude Oil Up'. Otherwise, it will resolve in favor of 'Crude Oil Down'.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Unexpected news regarding OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, or significant shifts in global economic data (particularly related to China and the US) could all cause substantial price movements. Even weather forecasts, especially concerning potential hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, can influence crude oil prices. Any surprise announcements regarding inventory levels from the Energy Information Administration could also move this market before Oct 15, 2026.