TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$20

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 9:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T13:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T13:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to move up or down during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a real-time view of trader sentiment, reflected in the odds, as well as a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also tracks the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $20, and the total volume traded to date, which is $20. This provides a comprehensive overview of activity in this specific market.

Currently, it's important to note that prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of information than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on economic models and fundamental analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing what traders believe will happen based on all available information – including factors that might not be captured in standard models. It’s common to see divergence between the two, as traders may weigh certain events or signals differently than analysts. This market provides a unique perspective on potential price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will move up or down. The odds you see reflect the current supply and demand for these contracts. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information, causing the probabilities to fluctuate. The price is determined entirely by the collective actions of participants on Predict, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of potential outcomes.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of crude oil between 9:15 AM ET and 9:30 AM ET on October 15th. A price increase during that window will result in a positive outcome for the 'Crude Oil Up' side of this market, while a price decrease will result in a positive outcome for the 'Crude Oil Down' side. The final outcome will be determined by publicly available price data.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 15, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or Chinese economic growth figures), could also shift trader sentiment. Furthermore, any surprising announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels would likely cause substantial movement. Finally, even weather patterns – especially those threatening Gulf Coast oil infrastructure – could influence the price and, consequently, this market.