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420,493

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 8:45PM-9PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$49

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 8:45PM-9PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 8:45PM-9PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 9:00 PM EST

predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 8:45PM-9PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$49
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T00:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T00:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to go up or down between 8:45 PM and 9:00 PM ET on October 15th. It also tracks the total volume traded in this market, currently at $49, as well as the 24-hour volume, which stands at $49. You can view a price history chart to see how the market has been pricing in different outcomes over time. This allows traders to assess market sentiment and potential trading opportunities.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their capital at risk. If a significant divergence exists between what analysts predict and how this market is pricing outcomes, it could indicate that traders have access to information or insights not yet reflected in conventional forecasts. It's important to remember that both approaches have their strengths and weaknesses.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders can buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the price of crude oil will be higher or lower during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating an implied probability for each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions as new information becomes available, influencing the market price.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts during the specified 15-minute window – 8:45 PM to 9:00 PM ET on October 15th. A price increase will result in a payout for those who predicted ‘Crude Oil Up’, while a price decrease will favor those who bet on ‘Crude Oil Down’. The final price will be sourced from established financial data providers.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 16, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, such as disruptions to supply from the Middle East, could cause a rapid price shift. Major economic data releases, like unexpected changes in global demand forecasts or inventory reports, could also impact the market. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels or changes in US oil policy could introduce volatility. Keep an eye on these factors as they develop, as they are likely to influence trading activity.