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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 8:45AM-9AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$4

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 8:45AM-9AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 8:45AM-9AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 9:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 8:45AM-9AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T12:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T12:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price movement tracks the current odds of the price going up or down between 8:45AM and 9:00AM ET on October 15th. It also displays the price history of the market, showing how probabilities have shifted over time. You’ll find the total volume traded in this market, currently at $4, as well as the 24-hour volume, which stands at $4. This provides a quick overview of market activity and sentiment surrounding the short-term direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, analysts are divided on the short-term trajectory of crude oil, with some predicting a slight increase due to geopolitical tensions and others forecasting a decrease based on inventory levels. This market offers a different perspective, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders who are putting capital behind their beliefs. While analyst forecasts are based on models and reports, the odds here represent real-time predictions backed by financial stakes. Comparing the two can provide a more nuanced understanding of potential price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing reflects the evolving expectations of participants and provides a real-time assessment of the probability of each outcome. The more traders believe the price will go up, the higher the 'up' contract price will climb, and vice versa.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the crude oil price between 8:45 AM and 9:00 AM ET on October 15th. If the price is higher at 9:00 AM ET than it was at 8:45 AM ET, the 'Crude Oil Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Crude Oil Down' outcome will be considered correct. The precise price data will be sourced from established financial data providers.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 15, 2026. Unexpected news regarding OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, or surprising inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration could all cause substantial shifts in the odds. Even macroeconomic data releases, such as inflation figures or economic growth forecasts, could influence trader sentiment. A sudden spike in demand, perhaps due to unforeseen circumstances, or a disruption in supply could also quickly move this market. Monitoring these events will be crucial for understanding potential price fluctuations.