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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET - Predict

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·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 8:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T00:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T00:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the implied probability of the price of crude oil going up or down by October 15th at 8:30–8:45 PM ET. You’ll find real-time odds reflecting trader sentiment, a price history showing how probabilities have shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume for this market is $0, indicating the overall interest and participation. This provides a dynamic view of expectations surrounding crude oil price movements.

Currently, prediction market odds represent a collective forecast from a diverse group of traders. These odds often differ from traditional analyst forecasts, as they reflect real-money stakes and a broader range of information. While analysts may focus on fundamental factors like supply and demand, this market incorporates those insights along with potentially overlooked variables and even sentiment. It’s common to see discrepancies, with the market sometimes anticipating changes before they are reflected in conventional predictions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly translating into the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to express their honest beliefs, as profitable predictions yield financial rewards. The current price reflects the aggregated wisdom of the crowd participating on Predict.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between the opening price on October 15th and the closing price at 8:45 PM ET. If the closing price is higher than the opening price, the 'Crude Oil Up' outcome will be considered correct; otherwise, 'Crude Oil Down' will be the winning outcome.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 16, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions, or changes in OPEC+ production policies are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or Chinese economic growth figures), can also move the market. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any significant weather events impacting oil infrastructure could all play a role in shifting trader sentiment and, consequently, the odds.