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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$22

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET - Predict

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·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 8:30 AM EST

predict

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T12:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T12:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the implied probability of the price of crude oil going up or down between 8:15 AM and 8:30 AM ET on October 15th. You’ll find the current odds reflecting trader sentiment, a price history showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $22. The total volume for this market is $22, indicating the overall interest in predicting this short-term price movement. This allows you to quickly assess market activity.

Currently, it’s important to note that this market represents the collective prediction of traders on Predict. Comparing these odds to traditional analyst forecasts reveals how crowd wisdom differs from expert opinion. Often, prediction markets can offer a different perspective, potentially identifying insights overlooked by conventional analysis. While analysts might provide point estimates or ranges, this market provides a probabilistic view of the outcome. It's worth considering both sources of information when forming your own view on the direction of crude oil prices.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will go up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe the price will rise, the higher the price of the 'Up' contract, and vice-versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities as conditions change. The current implied probabilities are driven entirely by supply and demand within Predict.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of crude oil between 8:15 AM and 8:30 AM ET on October 15th. If the price is higher at 8:30 AM than at 8:15 AM, the 'Crude Oil Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, 'Crude Oil Down' will be the winning outcome. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 15, 2026. Unexpected news regarding oil supply – such as announcements from OPEC+ regarding production cuts or increases – would be a major catalyst. Geopolitical events, particularly those impacting major oil-producing regions, could also cause substantial price swings. Furthermore, economic data releases, such as inventory reports or global economic growth forecasts, could shift trader sentiment. Even short-term weather patterns, especially those affecting oil transportation routes, have the potential to move this market.