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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 7:45PM-8PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$49

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 7:45PM-8PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 7:45PM-8PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 8:00 PM EST

predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 7:45PM-8PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$49
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T23:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T23:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down between 7:45 PM and 8:00 PM ET on October 15th. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, as well as a price history chart showing how the market has moved over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $49, and the total volume traded to date, which is $49. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity.

Currently, it's important to note that this market's predictions are based solely on the collective intelligence of traders on Predict. Comparing these odds to external analyst forecasts reveals a different perspective on the potential movement of crude oil prices. While some analysts may predict a rise, others anticipate a decline, and their reasoning often centers on geopolitical factors, supply chain disruptions, and global economic indicators. This market offers a real-time, financially incentivized view, distinct from traditional expert opinions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the price of crude oil will be higher or lower during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective expectations of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that traders assign to each outcome, and this probability is constantly updated as new information becomes available and trading activity changes.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the closing price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts during the 7:45 PM to 8:00 PM ET window on October 15th. If the price at that time is higher than the opening price, the 'Crude Oil Up' outcome will be considered correct; otherwise, the 'Crude Oil Down' outcome will prevail. The determination will be made using publicly available data sources.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 16, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in major oil-producing regions, could cause a sharp price increase. Conversely, announcements of increased oil production or a slowdown in global economic growth could push prices lower. Inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and OPEC decisions regarding output levels are also key catalysts. Furthermore, any significant shifts in the US dollar's strength or changes in global demand patterns could influence trading activity and move the market.