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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 7:45AM-8AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$10

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 7:45AM-8AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 7:45AM-8AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 8:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 7:45AM-8AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T11:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T11:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to be up or down as of October 15th. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the total volume traded in this market, currently at $10, and the 24-hour volume, which is $10. The dashboard also displays a price history chart, showing how the market’s predictions have evolved over time, and provides a clear view of trader sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts rely on economic indicators and geopolitical factors, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential black swan events. When compared to polls and expert predictions, this market can offer a unique and potentially more accurate signal about the future direction of crude oil prices. It's important to note that discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and assumptions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be up or down by the specified time. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. Traders are incentivized to offer accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded. This dynamic pricing system allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its predictions accordingly.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 7:45 AM and 8:00 AM Eastern Time on October 15th. The direction of the price change – whether it’s up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before its resolution. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions, and shifts in global economic growth forecasts are all potential catalysts. Furthermore, major weather events that disrupt oil supply, such as hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, could also cause substantial price movements. Any significant changes in inventory levels reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) could also impact trader sentiment and move this market.