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408,643

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 6:45PM-7PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$37

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 6:45PM-7PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 6:45PM-7PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 7:00 PM EST

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 6:45PM-7PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$37
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T22:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T22:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down between 6:45 PM and 7:00 PM ET on October 15th. It also tracks the total volume traded in this market, currently at $37, and the 24-hour volume, which is $37. You can view a price history chart to see how the market has been pricing in different outcomes over time. This allows traders to monitor sentiment and potential shifts in expectations.

Currently, it's important to note that this market represents the collective prediction of traders on Predict. These predictions are often compared to those of financial analysts and traditional polls. However, it’s crucial to remember that analysts’ forecasts are often based on models and individual judgment, while this market reflects a real-money incentive for accurate predictions. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and information access, and the market can quickly incorporate new information as it becomes available.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower during the specified time window. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately reflecting the market’s consensus probability. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a constantly updated assessment of the likelihood of each outcome, driven by the collective intelligence of the traders participating in this market.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts during the 6:45 PM to 7:00 PM ET window on October 15th. The market will determine whether the price increased or decreased during that period, and that will be the final outcome of this market.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 15, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions, or changes in OPEC+ production policies are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or Chinese economic growth figures), could also shift trader sentiment. Furthermore, any significant news regarding oil inventories, refinery activity, or major weather events impacting oil infrastructure could lead to substantial price movements and changes in this market’s probabilities.