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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$19

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 6:45 PM EST

predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T22:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T22:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of these odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has priced in information over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $19, and the total volume traded to date, which is $19. This allows you to quickly assess market activity and sentiment.

Currently, analysts are split on the direction of crude oil prices, with some predicting a rise due to geopolitical tensions and supply constraints, while others foresee a decline based on concerns about global economic growth. This market offers a different perspective, aggregating the wisdom of the crowd. If the prediction market odds significantly diverge from these analyst forecasts, it could indicate that traders have access to, or place more weight on, different information. It's a valuable data point to consider alongside traditional analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective forecast of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the odds you see represent the market’s consensus view, constantly updated as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 6:30 PM and 6:45 PM ET on October 15th. If the price at 6:45 PM ET is higher than at 6:30 PM ET, the market will resolve in favor of 'Crude Oil Up'; otherwise, it will resolve to 'Crude Oil Down'.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 15, 2026. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, or surprising data releases related to global economic growth could all trigger substantial price movements. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any disruptions to oil infrastructure, such as pipeline outages or refinery issues, are likely to impact trading activity and shift the odds in this market.