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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$15

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET - Predict

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·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 6:30 PM EST

predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T22:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T22:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You'll find a visual representation of these odds, along with the total volume traded in this market, currently at $15, and the 24-hour volume, which is $15. The dashboard also displays a price history chart, allowing you to see how the market's expectations have shifted over time. This provides a quick overview of trader sentiment regarding the future direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, it's important to note that this market represents the collective prediction of traders on Predict. Comparing these odds to external analyst forecasts reveals how market-based predictions differ from those of experts. Often, prediction markets can aggregate information more efficiently than individual analysts, potentially offering a more accurate forecast. However, it's also common to see discrepancies, especially when analysts have strong biases or differing methodologies. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into the overall outlook for crude oil.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to express their true beliefs, as profitable trades depend on accurate predictions. This dynamic pricing process aims to create a fair and efficient market for forecasting the direction of crude oil.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 6:15 PM and 6:30 PM Eastern Time on October 15th. If the price is higher at 6:30 PM than at 6:15 PM, the 'Crude Oil Up' outcome will be considered correct; otherwise, the 'Crude Oil Down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 15, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or Chinese economic growth figures), can also shift expectations. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any significant weather events impacting oil infrastructure could move the market. Traders will closely monitor these signals to adjust their positions and refine their forecasts.