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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 5PM-5:15PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 5PM-5:15PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 5PM-5:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 5:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 5PM-5:15PM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T21:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T21:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total overall volume traded in this market, which stands at $0. This provides a comprehensive overview of how traders are positioning themselves ahead of the October 15th event.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts. While some analysts predict a slight increase in crude oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, this market shows a more balanced expectation. It's common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of many traders, potentially incorporating information not yet reflected in standard financial models. This divergence highlights the unique insights offered by a crowdsourced forecasting approach, distinct from individual expert opinions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective forecast of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current spread between the 'up' and 'down' contracts indicates the level of uncertainty surrounding the outcome, and the volume traded provides a measure of confidence in the prevailing sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the closing price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) between 5:00 PM and 5:15 PM Eastern Time on October 15th. If the closing price is higher than the opening price on that day, the 'Crude Oil Up' outcome will be considered correct; otherwise, 'Crude Oil Down' will prevail.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production cuts or increases would likely cause a substantial shift in prices. Geopolitical events, such as escalating tensions in major oil-producing regions, could also drive volatility. Furthermore, economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like Chinese manufacturing numbers or US inventory reports), could impact trader sentiment. Any surprise news regarding supply disruptions, such as refinery outages or pipeline issues, could also move this market considerably.