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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 5:45PM-6PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 5:45PM-6PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 5:45PM-6PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 6:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 5:45PM-6PM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T21:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T21:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to move up or down. You’ll find a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, along with the total volume traded in this market, currently at $0. The 24-hour volume is displayed as $0, indicating recent trading activity. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets regarding the direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, analysts are divided on the future direction of crude oil prices, with some predicting a rise due to geopolitical tensions and supply cuts, while others foresee a decline based on concerns about a potential global economic slowdown. This market offers a different perspective, aggregating the wisdom of the crowd to generate a probability-based forecast. It will be interesting to see if the collective prediction on Predict aligns with, or diverges from, the views of traditional financial analysts as we approach the resolution date.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective judgment of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing ensures the odds closely represent the perceived probability of each outcome, offering a forward-looking indicator distinct from lagging economic data or traditional surveys.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 5:45 PM and 6:00 PM Eastern Time on October 15th. If the price is higher at 6:00 PM than at 5:45 PM, the 'Crude Oil Up' outcome will prevail; otherwise, the 'Crude Oil Down' outcome will be considered the result.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 15, 2026. Unexpected announcements from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) regarding production levels, geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, or surprising economic data releases (such as inflation figures or GDP growth) could all trigger substantial price movements. Furthermore, any major disruptions to oil supply, like pipeline outages or attacks on oil infrastructure, would likely cause volatility in this market. Monitoring these events will be crucial for understanding shifts in trader sentiment.