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412,077

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$83

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 4:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$83
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T20:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T20:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of these odds, along with the total volume traded, currently at $83, and the 24-hour volume, which is $83. The dashboard also displays a price history chart, allowing you to see how the market’s predictions have evolved over time. This provides a comprehensive overview of how traders are assessing the likelihood of price movement.

Currently, it’s important to note that analysts’ forecasts for crude oil price movement vary widely, depending on factors like geopolitical events and supply/demand expectations. This market offers a different perspective, reflecting the collective judgment of traders who are putting their capital at risk. While analyst forecasts often present a single point estimate or range, this market aggregates diverse opinions into a probability distribution. Comparing this market to polls of analysts reveals whether traders are more bullish or bearish than the expert consensus, providing a unique signal.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders can buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe the price will rise, the higher the price of the “up” contract, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date collective intelligence.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 4:30 PM ET and 4:45 PM ET on October 15th. If the price is higher at 4:45 PM ET than at 4:30 PM ET, the market will resolve in favor of “Crude Oil Up.” Conversely, if the price is lower, it will resolve in favor of “Crude Oil Down.”

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 15, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or Chinese economic growth figures), will also be closely watched. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels or changes in inventory levels reported by the Energy Information Administration could create substantial price movements and therefore shift the odds in this market. Any surprise announcements regarding energy policy could also have an impact.