TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

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2,984,028,936

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$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

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5

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37%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 3PM-3:15PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$131

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 3PM-3:15PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 3PM-3:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 3:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 3PM-3:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$131
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T19:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T19:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to go up or down. You’ll find a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, along with the total volume traded in this market, currently at $131. The 24-hour volume is also visible, showing $131 in recent trading activity. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likely direction of oil prices leading up to the event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are providing price targets and directional guidance for crude oil, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their mouth is. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see prediction markets react more quickly to new information, as traders can adjust their positions instantly, unlike analysts who typically release updates on a set schedule. This provides a unique, forward-looking signal.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating an implied probability for each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe the price will rise, the higher the price of the “up” contract, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants in the market.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 3:00 PM ET and 3:15 PM ET on October 15th. If the price is higher at 3:15 PM ET than at 3:00 PM ET, the “Crude Oil Up” outcome will be considered correct; otherwise, the “Crude Oil Down” outcome will prevail.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 15, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions, or changes in OPEC+ production policies are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or Chinese economic growth figures), can also influence prices. Furthermore, any major news regarding inventory levels, refinery outages, or shifts in currency exchange rates could trigger substantial movement in this market. Traders will be closely monitoring these signals to adjust their positions.