TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

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2,984,028,936

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$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

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PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$224

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 3:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$224
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T19:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T19:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to move up or down. You’ll find a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, along with the total volume traded in this market – currently $224 – and the 24-hour volume, which is $224. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets and how sentiment is evolving as we approach the event’s conclusion.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective assessment of whether crude oil prices will increase or decrease. These odds often differ from traditional analyst forecasts, as they represent a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ perspective, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. While analysts may focus on fundamental factors like supply and demand, this market also factors in geopolitical risks, unexpected events, and even market sentiment. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets can react more quickly to new information than traditional reporting.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the future direction of crude oil prices. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the implied probabilities you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe oil will go up, the higher the price of ‘up’ contracts will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the collective intelligence of the crowd.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 3:15 PM ET and 3:30 PM ET on October 15th. If the price is higher at 3:30 PM ET than at 3:15 PM ET, the ‘Crude Oil Up’ outcome will be considered correct, and vice versa.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 15, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in major oil-producing regions, could cause a rapid price shift. Major economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, could also influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, any surprising announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels or changes in inventory reports could move this market considerably. Keep an eye on these developments as they unfold.