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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 1PM-1:15PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$10

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 1PM-1:15PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 1PM-1:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 1:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 1PM-1:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T17:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T17:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You'll find a visual representation of these odds, along with the total volume traded—currently $10—and the 24-hour volume, which is $10. The dashboard also displays a price history chart, allowing you to see how the market's expectations have shifted over time. This provides a clear overview of trader sentiment regarding the direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, it's important to note that analyst forecasts regarding crude oil prices vary considerably. Some anticipate a slight increase due to geopolitical factors, while others predict a decline based on global economic slowdown concerns. This market provides a different perspective, aggregating the wisdom of the crowd. While analyst opinions are valuable, they are often based on individual biases and models. The collective predictions represented in this market offer a dynamic and real-time assessment of potential price movements, potentially highlighting areas of agreement or disagreement with traditional forecasts.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective expectations of traders. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the odds you see are determined entirely by user activity on Predict, and are not influenced by external factors or pre-defined probabilities.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 1:00 PM and 1:15 PM ET on October 15th. If the price is higher at 1:15 PM ET than at 1:00 PM ET, the 'Crude Oil Up' outcome will prevail; otherwise, the 'Crude Oil Down' outcome will be considered the result.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 15, 2026. Unexpected announcements from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) regarding production cuts or increases would likely cause substantial price movement. Geopolitical events, such as escalating tensions in major oil-producing regions, could also create volatility. Furthermore, major economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, could influence trader sentiment and shift the odds. Finally, any significant disruptions to oil supply, like a major pipeline outage, could also move this market.