TOTAL VOLUME:

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$1,944,100,805

420,493

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5

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 1:45PM-2PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$4

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 1:45PM-2PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 1:45PM-2PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 2:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 1:45PM-2PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T17:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T17:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You'll find a visual representation of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $4, and the total volume traded to date, which is $4. This allows you to quickly gauge market interest and how actively traders are participating in this specific market.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of perspectives and potentially incorporating information not readily available to analysts. It's common to see discrepancies, especially when unexpected events occur or sentiment shifts rapidly. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market expectations and potential blind spots in conventional analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as traders react to new information and refine their predictions, creating a real-time assessment of potential price movements. This differs from fixed-odds betting, as the odds are constantly evolving based on supply and demand.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts as reported by a widely recognized financial data provider at the specified time. The direction of the price change – whether it has gone up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders will be able to view the resolution details on Predict following verification.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 15, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in international relations, are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP growth), can also have a substantial impact. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, or significant shifts in inventory levels reported by the Energy Information Administration, could also drive price fluctuations and influence trading activity in this market.