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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$96

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 1:45 PM EST

predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$96
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T17:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T17:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the implied probability of the price of crude oil going up or down between 1:30PM and 1:45PM ET on October 15th. You’ll find a history of how the odds have changed over time, along with the current 24-hour trading volume of $96. Currently, the total volume for this market is $96. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets and how sentiment is shifting as the event approaches.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts without a standardized benchmark. However, generally, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional polls or individual analyst predictions. This can lead to differences in probability assessments, as this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders actively assessing the potential for price movement. It’s worth noting that analysts’ forecasts are often point estimates, while this market provides a probabilistic view of the outcome.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective assessment of all traders participating in this market, and it’s constantly updating as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the price of crude oil, as reported by a major financial data provider, is higher or lower at 1:45 PM ET on October 15th than it was at 1:30 PM ET on the same day. The final price difference will determine whether the 'Crude Oil Up' or 'Crude Oil Down' outcome is declared.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 15, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ policy, could have a substantial impact. Additionally, macroeconomic data releases, like inflation figures or economic growth reports, could influence investor sentiment and oil demand expectations. Finally, any surprising news regarding global supply and demand dynamics, including inventory reports or shifts in energy consumption patterns, could cause traders to reassess their positions and shift the odds in this market.