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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 12PM-12:15PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$35

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 12PM-12:15PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 12PM-12:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 12:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 12PM-12:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$35
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T16:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T16:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down between 12PM and 12:15PM ET on October 15th. You’ll find a history of how these probabilities have shifted over time, alongside the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $35. The total volume traded in this market is $35. This allows you to see how traders are reacting to news and information as the event approaches and gauge the overall sentiment surrounding the short-term direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds represent a collective forecast from a diverse group of traders. These odds often differ from traditional analyst forecasts, as they reflect real-money incentives and a wider range of information. While some analysts predict a stable price, this market allows participants to express their views with financial stakes, potentially revealing insights that polls or expert opinions might miss. It's common to see discrepancies, especially when unexpected events or breaking news impact the perceived likelihood of price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating implied probabilities for each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform uses a dynamic pricing algorithm to ensure fair and efficient trading, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. This means the odds aren’t set by a single entity but emerge from the interactions of all participants.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 12:00 PM ET and 12:15 PM ET on October 15th. If the price is higher at 12:15 PM ET than at 12:00 PM ET, the 'Crude Oil Up' outcome will prevail; otherwise, the 'Crude Oil Down' outcome will be considered the result.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 15, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, such as disruptions to supply from the Middle East, could cause a rapid price shift. Major economic data releases, like inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) or changes in global demand forecasts, also have the potential to influence trader sentiment. Even unforeseen weather events impacting oil infrastructure could create volatility and impact the direction of the crude oil price.