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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 1:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

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Settled
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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T17:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T17:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of these odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has fluctuated over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity surrounding this specific event.

Currently, the collective prediction from this market suggests a different outlook than many traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are predicting a continued upward trend in crude oil prices, this market reflects a more nuanced view, with a significant portion of traders betting on a potential price decrease. It's important to remember that analyst forecasts are often based on models and assumptions, while this market represents the aggregated wisdom of a diverse group of individuals actively trading on the outcome. This difference highlights the potential value of prediction markets as a complementary source of information.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the price of crude oil will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately reflecting the collective probability of the outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of the outcome, allowing traders to express their views and profit from correctly anticipating the future price movement of crude oil.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of crude oil between 1:15 PM ET and 1:30 PM ET on October 15th. If the price is higher at 1:30 PM ET than at 1:15 PM ET, the 'Crude Oil Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Crude Oil Down' outcome will prevail. The final outcome will be determined by a comparison of publicly available price data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 15, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions, could cause a rapid price shift. Major economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, could also impact market sentiment. Furthermore, any significant announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels would likely move this market. Even unexpected weather patterns impacting oil infrastructure could play a role, creating volatility and shifting the probabilities reflected in the trading activity.