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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 11:45AM-12PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 11:45AM-12PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 11:45AM-12PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 12:00 PM EST

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 11:45AM-12PM ET

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Settled
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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T15:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T15:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down between 11:45 AM and 12:00 PM ET on October 15th. You’ll find a history of how these probabilities have shifted over time, along with the total volume traded in this market, currently at $0, and the 24-hour volume, which is $0. This allows you to see how traders are reacting to news and events as the resolution date approaches.

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the predictions within this market to traditional analyst forecasts. However, the collective wisdom of traders on Predict often provides a unique perspective, potentially incorporating information and viewpoints not fully reflected in standard polls or reports. If analysts are largely predicting a price increase, we might expect to see a higher probability assigned to the 'Crude Oil Up' outcome in this market, but this isn’t always the case, as traders weigh different factors and risk tolerances.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the price of crude oil will be higher or lower during the specified time window. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment, offering a forward-looking assessment of the potential price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the price of crude oil will be assessed during the 11:45 AM to 12:00 PM ET window on October 15th, and the market will settle based on whether the price has increased or decreased during that period. The exact price level isn’t relevant; only the direction of the change determines the winning outcome in this market.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 15, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions, or changes in OPEC+ production policies are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or Chinese economic growth figures), will also be closely watched. Even weather patterns, especially those affecting oil transportation routes, could influence trader sentiment and shift the probabilities within this market.