TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

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2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

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4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$49

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 11:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$49
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T15:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T15:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to move up or down between 11:15 AM and 11:30 AM ET on October 15th. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, as well as a history of how they’ve changed over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $49, and the total volume traded to date, which is $49. This provides a quick overview of market sentiment and activity.

Currently, it's important to note that analysts’ forecasts regarding short-term crude oil price movements are often varied and can be influenced by numerous factors. This market allows traders to express their collective prediction, which may differ from individual analyst opinions. While some analysts may predict an increase in crude oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, others might foresee a decrease based on economic indicators. The aggregated wisdom of the crowd in this market offers a distinct perspective compared to relying on a single analyst’s viewpoint.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower during the specified time window. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective expectations of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that traders assign to the outcome, and this probability shifts as new information becomes available or sentiment changes. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date assessment of the likely outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is higher or lower at 11:30 AM ET on October 15th compared to its price at 11:15 AM ET. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider, ensuring an objective determination of whether the market predicts the price movement correctly.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 15, 2026. Unexpected announcements from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) regarding production levels, geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, and shifts in global economic data (such as inflation or manufacturing reports) are all potential catalysts. Furthermore, any unforeseen disruptions to oil supply, like pipeline outages or natural disasters, could also cause substantial price fluctuations and, consequently, movement in this market. Traders will be closely monitoring these developments.