TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

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2,984,028,936

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$1,884,820,873

413,109

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 10:45PM-11PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$40

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 10:45PM-11PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 10:45PM-11PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 11:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 10:45PM-11PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$40
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T02:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T02:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to move up or down. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the market has priced in different outcomes over time. The dashboard also tracks the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $40, and the total volume traded to date, which is $40. This provides a clear overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding the future direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, analysts are divided on the future direction of crude oil prices, with some predicting a rise due to geopolitical tensions and supply constraints, while others foresee a decline based on concerns about global economic slowdown and increased production. This market allows traders to express their own views, which may differ from or align with these traditional forecasts. It’s a dynamic comparison, as the market odds reflect a collective intelligence that can shift rapidly with new information, potentially offering a different perspective than static analyst reports.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the aggregated predictions of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability of the price going up is unavailable, as trading volume is still very low. This dynamic pricing allows for real-time assessment of market sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts between 10:45 PM and 11:00 PM Eastern Time on October 15th. The direction of the price change – whether it goes up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market. It's important to note that the specific price level isn't the determining factor, only the direction of movement.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before resolution. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions to oil supply in major producing regions, could drive prices higher. Conversely, signs of a weakening global economy or increased oil production from OPEC+ could push prices lower. Major economic data releases, particularly those related to economic growth and demand, will also be closely watched. Furthermore, any significant shifts in inventory levels reported by the Energy Information Administration could influence trading activity in this market.