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412,077

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$78

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 10:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$78
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T14:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T14:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down between 10:15AM and 10:30AM ET on October 15th. You’ll find a visual representation of these odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has fluctuated over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $78, and the total volume traded to date, which is $78. This provides a snapshot of market activity and sentiment.

Currently, it’s a mixed bag when comparing the predictions within this market to those from financial analysts. While many analysts predict moderate volatility in crude oil prices leading up to the specified time, the degree of consensus varies. Some anticipate a slight upward trend, while others foresee a potential dip, influenced by geopolitical factors and supply chain dynamics. This market allows for a different form of forecasting, aggregating the wisdom of the crowd and potentially revealing insights that differ from traditional analyst opinions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower during the 10:15AM-10:30AM ET window on October 15th. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective judgment of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability of either outcome is determined by the ratio of buy and sell orders, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of market expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil at 10:30AM ET on October 15th, compared to the price at 10:15AM ET. If the price at 10:30AM ET is higher than at 10:15AM ET, the 'Crude Oil Up' outcome will prevail; otherwise, 'Crude Oil Down' will be the result. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data feeds.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 15, 2026. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions, or shifts in global economic forecasts could all impact crude oil prices. Furthermore, inventory reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any significant disruptions to oil supply chains, such as weather events or pipeline outages, could also trigger substantial price movements and influence trading activity in this market.