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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 5, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Oct 29, 2026, 5:30 AM EST - Nov 5, 2026, 5:45 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 5, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 5, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 5, 2026

Time left: 02d:12h:11m

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 5, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Trade on Predict

Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity 2 days to resolution
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 5, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 12h 11m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T10:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T10:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has priced in information over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume traded to date is $0, giving you a sense of overall market interest. This allows you to see how traders are positioning themselves ahead of the November 5th event.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts. While some analysts predict a stable oil price, this market shows traders assigning probabilities based on their own research and insights. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets incorporate a wider range of information and are incentivized to be accurate. This difference highlights the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ effect, where collective predictions can sometimes outperform individual expert opinions. The market’s current view is a valuable data point alongside conventional analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective judgment of market participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions as new information becomes available, leading to dynamic price movements. This creates a real-time assessment of the likelihood of different outcomes.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of crude oil between 5:30 AM and 5:45 AM Eastern Time on November 5th. The direction of the price change – whether it goes up or down – will determine which outcome is considered correct. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on their predictions and the final result.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Nov 5, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in international relations, are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, will also be closely watched. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production cuts or increases could also have a substantial impact. Finally, any significant weather events that could disrupt oil production or transportation could influence trading activity in this market.