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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 5, 4PM-4:15PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EST - Nov 5, 2026, 4:15 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 5, 4PM-4:15PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 5, 4PM-4:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 5, 2026

Time left: 03d:01h:30m

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 5, 4PM-4:15PM ET

Amount

$

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predict

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Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity 3 days to resolution
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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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24h
7d
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 5, 4PM-4:15PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 1h 30m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T21:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T21:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to be up or down as of November 5th. It also provides a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, along with the 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the volume is $0, and the total volume for this market is $0. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and track activity related to this specific event.

Currently, the collective prediction on Predict offers a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts regarding the direction of crude oil prices. While analysts often publish price targets and directional recommendations, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a real-time assessment of potential outcomes. It’s common to see discrepancies between these viewpoints, as prediction markets incorporate a wider range of information and are continuously updated based on new developments. This difference can be valuable for a more comprehensive understanding of potential price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be up or down by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe the price will rise, the higher the 'up' contract price will go, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism creates a continuously updated forecast of the likely outcome.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 4:00 PM and 4:15 PM ET on November 5th. If the price is higher at 4:15 PM ET than at 4:00 PM ET, the 'up' outcome will be considered correct; otherwise, the 'down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 5, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in international relations, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP figures), can also drive price fluctuations. Furthermore, announcements from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) regarding production levels, or changes in inventory levels reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), are likely to impact trading activity and shift the probabilities in this market.