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410,482

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 5, 2AM-2:15AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Oct 29, 2026, 2:00 AM EST - Nov 5, 2026, 2:15 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 5, 2AM-2:15AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 5, 2AM-2:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 5, 2026

Time left: 02d:07h:41m

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 5, 2AM-2:15AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 5, 2AM-2:15AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 7h 41m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T07:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T07:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You'll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has priced the event over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. Total volume for this market is $0. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to the future direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential unforeseen events. This can lead to discrepancies, as the market reacts to news and sentiment in real-time. It's common to see prediction markets outperform polls or expert opinions, particularly when dealing with complex or uncertain events, but it's not guaranteed.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be up or down by the specified date. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective judgment of market participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability of either outcome is determined by the ratio of buy and sell orders, providing a dynamic assessment of market expectations.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of crude oil between 2:00 AM and 2:15 AM ET on November 5th. The direction of the price change – whether it goes up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 5, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, such as conflicts or political instability, are key catalysts. Major economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like Chinese manufacturing numbers or US GDP growth), could also shift sentiment. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels or changes in inventory levels reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) are likely to move the market. Any surprise shifts in global risk appetite could also play a role.