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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 5, 12:45AM-1AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Oct 29, 2026, 1:40 AM EST - Nov 5, 2026, 1:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 5, 12:45AM-1AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 5, 12:45AM-1AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 5, 2026

Time left: 02d:07h:29m

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 5, 12:45AM-1AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

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Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity 2 days to resolution
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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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24h
7d
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 5, 12:45AM-1AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 7h 29m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T05:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T05:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to be up or down. It also provides a price history chart, allowing you to visualize how sentiment has shifted over time. You can easily monitor the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total overall volume, which is $0. This information helps traders understand market activity and potential shifts in expectations regarding the future direction of oil prices.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders in this market offers a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates diverse opinions into a probabilistic forecast. It's important to note that prediction market outcomes are based on real money at stake, potentially reflecting a higher degree of conviction than publicly stated opinions. Examining the difference between this market’s implied probabilities and those from financial news outlets or expert surveys can reveal valuable insights into market sentiment and potential discrepancies.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately determining the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current spread between the 'up' and 'down' contracts reflects the level of uncertainty and disagreement among traders. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations as conditions change.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts between 12:45 AM and 1:00 AM ET on November 5, 2026. A positive change will indicate the price went 'up,' while a negative change will indicate the price went 'down.' The final price movement will be sourced from a reputable financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 5, 2026. Geopolitical events, such as conflicts in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP growth), can also drive price movements. Unexpected supply disruptions, such as refinery outages or pipeline issues, could also cause volatility. Finally, shifts in investor sentiment, influenced by broader market trends or news headlines, will play a role in shaping the price of crude oil and, consequently, this market.