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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Oct 29, 2026, 1:40 AM EST - Nov 5, 2026, 12:45 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 5, 2026

Time left: 02d:02h:47m

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

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Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity 2 days to resolution
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 2h 47m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T05:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T05:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to move up or down. You’ll find a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume traded on this market is $0. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and track how opinions are evolving leading up to the event.

Currently, it's important to note that prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential influences. The question of whether prediction markets outperform expert opinions is a subject of ongoing debate, but this market provides a unique data point for comparison against prevailing analyst expectations regarding crude oil price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately determining the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective assessment of all participants on Predict and represents a real-time estimate of the likelihood of each scenario.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 12:30 AM ET and 12:45 AM ET on November 5th. The direction of the price change – whether it goes up or down – will determine the winning outcome for this market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 5, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, such as disruptions to supply or changes in political stability, are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or Chinese economic growth figures), could also shift sentiment. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, or even weather forecasts predicting major storms in oil-producing areas, could all move this market.