TOTAL VOLUME:

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$1,884,820,873

413,109

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 8:45AM-9AM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 8:45 AM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 9:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 8:45AM-9AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 8:45AM-9AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:15h:35m

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 8:45AM-9AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 8:45AM-9AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 15h 35m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T13:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T13:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price movement tracks the current odds of the price going up or down between 8:45AM and 9:00AM ET on November 4th. It also displays the price history of the market, showing how the probabilities have shifted over time. You can also see the 24-hour volume, which currently stands at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides a real-time overview of how traders are assessing the likely direction of crude oil prices during that specific window.

Currently, the prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts. While some analysts predict a stable or slightly increasing price, this market shows a more nuanced view, incorporating the collective wisdom of traders. It's important to remember that analyst forecasts are often based on models and assumptions, while this market represents actual money on the line. The difference highlights the value of a prediction market in aggregating diverse opinions and providing a forward-looking assessment of potential price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective sentiment of the participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price essentially represents the probability of the price going up, with the remaining probability implied for the price going down. Traders adjust their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, leading to a dynamic and responsive price discovery process.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the crude oil price between 8:45AM and 9:00AM ET on November 4th. If the price is higher at 9:00AM ET than it was at 8:45AM ET, the 'up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'down' outcome will be considered correct. The resolution will be based on a widely recognized and publicly available source for crude oil pricing data.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Unexpected news regarding OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions, or significant shifts in global economic forecasts could all impact trader sentiment. Additionally, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any surprise announcements about demand from major consuming nations like China could also cause substantial price fluctuations. Any unforeseen disruptions to oil supply, such as weather events or pipeline outages, would likely lead to increased volatility in this market.