TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

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40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

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63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 8:30 AM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 8:45 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:16h:18m

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 16h 18m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T13:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T13:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets on the direction of crude oil prices, offering insights into market expectations.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on complex economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of data or the inclusion of non-public information by individual traders. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts in price direction before they are reflected in consensus analyst ratings, offering a potentially leading indicator of future price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective judgment of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing ensures that the odds closely mirror the perceived probability of each outcome. Traders can enter and exit positions at any time, adjusting their exposure as new information becomes available.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 8:30 AM and 8:45 AM Eastern Time on November 4th. The market will determine if the price increased or decreased during that 15-minute window, and the outcome will reflect that direction. This provides a clear and objective determination of the market’s success or failure.

Several factors could significantly influence this market leading up to Nov 4, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in international relations, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, could also drive price movements. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production cuts or increases will likely have a substantial impact. Any surprise news regarding supply, demand, or global economic conditions could lead to substantial shifts in the odds within this market.