TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

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$235,918,089

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2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 6AM-6:15AM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 6:00 AM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 6:15 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 6AM-6:15AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 6AM-6:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:12h:49m

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 6AM-6:15AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 6AM-6:15AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
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1d 12h 49m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T11:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T11:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity surrounding the future direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of perspectives and information. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, risk tolerances, or access to unique data points. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are fully reflected in conventional analyst reports, offering a potentially valuable signal for understanding market expectations.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The prices of these contracts directly translate into implied probabilities. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand; if more traders believe the price will rise, the 'up' contracts become more expensive, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing reflects the collective intelligence of the participants.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 6:00 AM and 6:15 AM Eastern Time on November 4, 2026. The market will determine whether the price increased or decreased during that period, and that result will be the final outcome of this market.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before its resolution. Geopolitical events, such as conflicts in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are major drivers. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, can also cause substantial price swings. Furthermore, major weather events that disrupt oil production or transportation, or shifts in inventory levels reported by the Energy Information Administration, could all influence trading activity and move this market considerably.