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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 6:45AM-7AM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 6:45 AM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 7:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 6:45AM-7AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 6:45AM-7AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:09h:16m

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 6:45AM-7AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 6:45AM-7AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
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N/A
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1d 9h 16m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T11:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T11:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has moved, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume traded to date is $0. This provides a comprehensive overview of how traders are assessing the likely direction of crude oil prices leading up to the event.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts predict a continued rise in oil prices due to geopolitical factors, this market shows a more nuanced view, incorporating a wider range of potential outcomes. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of many individuals, potentially identifying factors that aren’t fully captured in standard financial models. This divergence highlights the unique insights offered by this market.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts directly reflects the probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as new information becomes available and traders update their assessments, creating a real-time forecast of the event’s likelihood. The current implied probabilities are visible on the market dashboard.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts as reported by a major financial data provider during the specified 6:45AM-7:00AM ET window on November 4th. The direction of the price change – up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, geopolitical instability in major oil-producing regions, or surprising inventory reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration are all potential catalysts. Macroeconomic data releases, such as inflation figures or changes in global economic growth forecasts, could also influence trader sentiment and shift the odds. Any news impacting the global supply or demand balance for crude oil is likely to affect this market.