TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$277,138,640

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,905,404,943

412,077

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39,838

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

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63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 6:30 PM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 6:45 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:17h:44m

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
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1d 17h 44m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T23:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T23:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. It also provides a price history chart, allowing you to see how the market's predictions have shifted over time. You can also view the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total market volume, which is $0. This information helps traders understand market sentiment and potential trading opportunities related to crude oil.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, access to information, or simply varying interpretations of the same data. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market expectations and potential biases in either approach.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the future price of crude oil. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability of the price going up or down is determined by the ratio of buy and sell orders, reflecting the collective judgment of market participants. This dynamic pricing allows for a constantly updated view of expectations.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 6:30 PM and 6:45 PM Eastern Time on November 4, 2026. The direction of the price change – whether it goes up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders will be able to see the verified result on Predict following the event.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 4, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as conflicts in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are key catalysts. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, could also shift market sentiment. Furthermore, significant weather events impacting oil infrastructure, like hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, or major shifts in energy policy could all contribute to price fluctuations and impact trading activity in this market.