TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$323,326,361

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2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,969,435,260

419,363

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4,612

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5

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 6:15 PM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 6:30 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:20h:51m

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
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N/A
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1d 20h 51m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T23:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T23:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of these odds, along with the total volume traded—currently $0—and the 24-hour volume, which is $0. The dashboard also displays a price history, allowing you to see how the market has perceived the likelihood of different outcomes over time. This provides a quick overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding this event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are providing price targets and directional guidance for crude oil, this market allows traders to express their beliefs with real capital. This can lead to divergences, as the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ may weigh factors differently than individual experts. It’s common to see this market incorporate information more quickly than polls or traditional forecasts, as traders react to news and events in real-time.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the market odds are constantly adjusting to reflect new information and changing sentiment among traders, offering a real-time assessment of probability.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 6:15 PM and 6:30 PM Eastern Time on November 4th. The market will determine whether the price moved up or down during that period, and the outcome will be based on publicly available data from established financial sources.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, would likely have a substantial impact. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, could also shift market sentiment. Additionally, any significant news regarding inventory levels, refinery outages, or major energy company announcements could influence trading activity in this market and alter the perceived probabilities.