TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

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$228,458,490

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2,984,028,936

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$1,879,276,037

410,833

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 5AM-5:15AM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 5:00 AM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 5:15 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 5AM-5:15AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 5AM-5:15AM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:12h:47m

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 5AM-5:15AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 5AM-5:15AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
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1d 12h 47m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T10:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T10:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the price history showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides a real-time overview of how traders are assessing the likely direction of the crude oil price.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their beliefs are. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information access, biases, or simply varying interpretations of the same data. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts before they’re reflected in consensus analyst expectations, or to assign different probabilities to the same potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective forecast of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that the market assigns to the outcome occurring, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood of the event happening. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a constantly updated assessment of expectations.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 5:00 AM and 5:15 AM Eastern Time on November 4, 2026. The direction of the price change—whether it goes up or down—will determine the winning outcome in this market. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before its resolution. Geopolitical events, such as conflicts in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are major catalysts. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, can also drive price movements. Additionally, major weather events impacting oil infrastructure, like hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, could create volatility. Finally, shifts in investor sentiment and broader financial market trends can all contribute to changes in the probabilities reflected in this market.