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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 5:45PM-6PM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 5:45 PM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 6:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 5:45PM-6PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 5:45PM-6PM ET - Predict

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Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:12h:58m

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 5:45PM-6PM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 5:45PM-6PM ET

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1d 12h 58m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T22:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T22:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, as well as a price history chart showing how the market has priced in information over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides a clear picture of market sentiment and activity surrounding this event.

Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on models and fundamental analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential scenarios. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, particularly when subjective factors or unforeseen events are likely to play a role. Currently, it’s worth noting how this market’s probabilities align with or diverge from prevailing expert opinions regarding crude oil price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the odds reflect the collective judgment of all participants trading in this market, and are constantly updated as new information becomes available. The current implied probabilities are driven by the interactions of traders on the platform.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts during the specified time period. The final price movement will be verified against credible public sources to determine whether the market resolves to 'up' or 'down'. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final outcome.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in international relations, are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, could also have a substantial impact. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, or shifts in inventory reports, are further signals to watch. Finally, any significant weather events that threaten oil infrastructure could also drive price fluctuations and influence this market.