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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 4:45AM-5AM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 4:45 AM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 5:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 4:45AM-5AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 4:45AM-5AM ET - Predict

1W

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Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 15h:50m:38s

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 4:45AM-5AM ET

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% High Projected APY: N/A Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
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24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 4:45AM-5AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
98¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
15h 50m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T09:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T09:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. Total volume for this market is $0. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where the crowd believes the price will move.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts provide price targets and recommendations, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a broader range of information and perspectives. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are fully reflected in mainstream analyst opinions, offering a potentially valuable leading indicator for the direction of crude oil prices.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower by the close of trading on November 4th. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a probability distribution. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds reflect the collective intelligence of all participants, providing a real-time assessment of expectations for the future price of crude oil.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts between 4:45 AM and 5:00 AM Eastern Time on November 4th. If the price is higher at 5:00 AM than at 4:45 AM, the 'Up' outcome will prevail; otherwise, the 'Down' outcome will be considered the result.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Unexpected geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, such as disruptions to supply from the Middle East, would likely cause a price spike and move the market towards the 'Up' outcome. Conversely, signs of weakening global demand, like a slowdown in Chinese economic growth or increased interest rates, could push prices lower and favor the 'Down' outcome. Major inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and OPEC decisions regarding production levels are also key catalysts to watch.