TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

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40,428

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MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

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63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
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predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 4:30 PM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 4:45 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:23h:18m

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
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N/A
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1d 23h 18m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T21:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T21:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of these odds, along with the total volume traded in this market, currently at $0, and the 24-hour volume, which is $0. The dashboard also displays a price history chart, allowing you to see how the market’s expectations have shifted over time. This provides a quick overview of trader sentiment regarding future crude oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of many individual traders. This can lead to divergences, particularly when unexpected events or shifts in sentiment occur. Often, the market reacts more quickly to new information than analyst reports, which may take longer to publish and disseminate. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as this market represents a real-money view of potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a constantly updated assessment of expectations, influenced by new information and trader sentiment. The current implied probabilities are visible on the market dashboard.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between the opening price on November 4th and the closing price at 4:45 PM ET on the same day. The direction of the price change – whether it goes up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market. The resolution will be determined by publicly available market data.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Unexpected announcements from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) regarding production levels are a major catalyst. Geopolitical events, such as conflicts or political instability in oil-producing regions, can also cause rapid price fluctuations. Furthermore, economic data releases, particularly those related to global economic growth or demand, could influence trader sentiment. Finally, any significant shifts in the US dollar’s strength or weakness could also impact the price of crude oil and, consequently, this market.